The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Nagorno-Karabakh is a region situated in the Southern Caucasus. It has been legally recognized as part of the Republic of Azerbaijan since 1923; however due to ethnic reasons, this region has been a hotbed for conflict between Republic of Azerbaijan and Republic of Armenia. The first tensions rose in 1988, when the Autonomous Oblast of Nagorno-Karabakh declared its intention to join the Republic of Armenia despite its official location within Azerbaijan. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the tensions turned into total war between two countries.
The war lasted until 12 May 1994 and ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire, leaving Armenian forces in control of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territories. As a result, the region of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territories got occupied by Armenian forces and the self proclaimed Republic of Artsakh, which is an unrecognized de-facto Armenian administration, got formed. The status quo has seen little change until the year 2020, in which both sides found themselves in war for the second time.
Map of the involved countries/regions. Source: Yahoo Images
The duration between 1994 and 2020 was not all peaceful, even the period was called as a “frozen conflict” by some analysts due to problems still lying unresolved even though the active warfare had stopped. After years of small skirmishes, a second large-scale war began with an Azerbaijani offensive on the morning of 27 September. The war lasted 44 days with constant Azerbaijani advances.
Following the capture of the city of Susha (the second largest city in the region) by Azerbaijani forces, a ceasefire agreement, again brokered by Russia, was signed and therefore the Second War of Nagorno Karabakh came to an end. As a result, Republic of Azerbaijan regained total control over many territories that were under Armenian occupation and also a regiment of Russian peacekeepers got placed in the border city of Lachin between Republic of Armenia and remaining self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh territories.
Map of territorial control of the region after the Second War of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Source: Evan Centanni and Djordje Djukic. Political Geography Now (2020)
Three years after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war, with continuing skirmishes and security incidents, in 2023, the Republic of Azerbaijan declared an Anti-Terror Operation and announced that it had invited Armenian representatives of Karabakh to discuss reintegration, while stating that the halt of military operations would require the disarmament of armed groups and the dismantling of unrecognized governing structures in the region. After 24 hours of operation, the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh accepted the Azerbajani demands and declared its own dissolution a week later. With this, the Republic of Azerbaijan declared its full control over the whole region of Nagorno Karabakh. In 2025, with the mediation of the United States of America; the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia signed a peace deal aimed at ending the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
President Donald Trump signs a trilateral joint declaration with President İlham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia. Official White House Photo by: Daniel Torok(August 8, 2025)
External Actors and Strategic Consequences
Throughout the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the political positions and levels of involvement of external actors varied significantly. Russia, traditionally the most influential power in the Caucasus region, sought to position itself as the primary mediator during both wars, ultimately brokering the ceasefire agreements in 1994 and 2020. By contrast, the United States played a limited role during the armed phases of the conflict but became more actively involved in diplomatic initiatives in the post-2020 peace process.
Türkiye aimed to support its close ally Azerbaijan during both conflicts but adopted a far more active role during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War by providing military assistance, most notably through the supply of domestically produced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), such as the Bayraktar TB2 drones. The extensive and effective use of these drones during the 2020 war highlighted a significant shift in modern warfare, demonstrating how unmanned systems and precision strikes can decisively alter battlefield dynamics and strategic outcomes.
In addition to military support, Türkiye also backed Azerbaijan diplomatically and economically, including through its participation in the blockade of Armenia. Iran on the other hand took a more neutral and balanced approach when compared with Türkiye regarding the conflict, calling for ceasefires and peaceful negotiations while repeating its support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity in line with United Nations resolutions. Despite this, Iran’s actions have sometimes appeared to favour Armenia. For example, Iran served as a key trading partner and supply route for Armenia during both conflicts, largely to counter Türkiye’s influence and decrease the impact of blockades against Armenia.
Another notable external actor that played a role in the conflict was the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe(OSCE) Minsk Group. In 1992, the OSCE participant countries agreed to convene a conference which was planned to happen in Minsk and discuss ways to resolve the conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh. Co-Chaired by France, Russia and United States, the Minsk Group failed to convene a conference in Minsk however provided a framework for negotiating a settlement Over time, the Minsk Group failed to produce a comprehensive settlement and gradually lost its relevance, particularly following the second Nagorno-Karabakh war and the eventual signing of a peace agreement in 2025.
Conclusion
Beyond its territorial and political outcomes, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict reshaped the nature of modern warfare and altered geopolitical alignments in the South Caucasus. The wars of 2020 and 2023 demonstrated the growing role of advanced military technologies, particularly unmanned aerial vehicles, while also redefining the strategic positions of regional and global actors such as Turkey, Russia, Iran, United States and the European Union. These developments marked a departure from previous conflict patterns and introduced new power dynamics in the region.
Sources
Source 1: Anadolu Agency. (2023). Azerbaycan’ın Karabağ’daki anti-terör operasyonu. Retrieved from
https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/gorus-azerbaycanin-karabagdaki-antiteror-operasyonu/2996544
Source 2: BBC News. (2012). Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: A timeline. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/
news/world-europe-18270325
Source 3: Centanni, E., & Djukic, D. (2020). Map of current territorial control in Nagorno-Karabakh
[Figure]. In Political Geography Now. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of
current-territorial-control-in-Nagorno-Karabakh-By-Evan-Centanni-and-Djordje_fig3_372878895
Source 4: Council on Foreign Relations. (n.d.). Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Retrieved from https://
www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict
Source 5: Insight Karabakh. (2020, October 30). What is the position of Iran regarding the Karabakh issue?
Retrieved from https://insightkarabakh.com/2020/10/30/what-is-the-position-of-iran-regarding-the
karabakh-issue/
Source 6: Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. (n.d.). OSCE Minsk Group. Retrieved from
https://www.osce.org/mg/108427
Source 7: RUDN Journal of International Relations. (n.d.). Article on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Retrieved from https://journals.rudn.ru/international-relations/article/view/37258
Source 8: University of Alabama at Birmingham Human Rights Institute. (2023, October 25). The Armenian
and Azerbaijani conflict: Attacks in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Retrieved from https://
sites.uab.edu/humanrights/2023/10/25/the-armenian-and-azerbaijani-conflict-attacks-in-the
nagorno-karabakh-region/
